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Patronato vs Racing Cordoba — Primera Nacional 2026

Patronato
Patronato
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
5/4/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 13Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Patronato49%
×Draw28%
Racing Cordoba23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patronato
1.34
Racing Cordoba
0.81

Patronato creates 65% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

creates per match

Patronato
1.20
Racing Cordoba
0.85

allows per match

Patronato
0.77
Racing Cordoba
1.49

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par
Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

Racing Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Patronato or draw
77%
Patronato or Racing Cordoba
72%
Draw or Racing Cordoba
51%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+
23%
Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals
74%
Patronato 2+ goals
39%
Patronato 3+ goals
15%
Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
56%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
19%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)
68%
Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 64 matches

Racing Cordoba away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.20 + Racing Cordoba defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Racing Cordoba attack 0.85 + Patronato defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Patronato scores more
49%
level
28%
Racing Cordoba scores more
23%

Patronato at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Patronato vs Racing Cordoba

Patronato beat Racing Cordoba 3-2 in Primera Nacional on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.