Patronato 0–1 Arsenal Sarandi: Result & Stats

Patronato

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arsenal Sarandi

F. Kruspzky 45'

7/9/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Patronato44%

×Draw28%

Arsenal Sarandi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatronatoExpected goals in this matchArsenal Sarandi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.99

Patronato

1.30

Arsenal Sarandi

0.99

Patronato creates 31% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 71 away

1.09

creates per match

0.87

1.11

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Patronato

1.09

Arsenal Sarandi

0.87

allows per match

Patronato

1.11

Arsenal Sarandi

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

Arsenal Sarandi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Patronato or draw

72%

Patronato or Arsenal Sarandi

72%

Draw or Arsenal Sarandi

56%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+

20%

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals

73%

Patronato 2+ goals

37%

Patronato 3+ goals

14%

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals

63%

Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals

26%

Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)

61%

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Arsenal Sarandi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.51 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.09 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.30

Arsenal Sarandi attack 0.87 + Patronato defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Patronato scores more

44%

level

28%

Arsenal Sarandi scores more

28%

Patronato at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Kruspzky

Arsenal Sarandi · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

F. Kruspzky← L. Brochero

32'

Julián Navas Granados

35'

Franco Leys

45'

F. Kruspzky↳ S. Lomónaco

46'

J. Giani← S. Medina

46'

I. Gariglio← G. Goñi

55'

Raúl Lozano

58'

J. Barinaga← N. Castro

59'

59'

62'

64'

69'

71'

M. Ortiz← A. Rodríguez

71'

F. Álvarez← C. Quintana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PatronatoArsenal

Overview

63%Possession37%

19Total Shots9

7Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots9

3On Target3

7Off Target4

9Blocked2

10Inside Box5

9Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

401Total Passes251

288Accurate Passes143

72%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 0–1 Arsenal Sarandi

Arsenal Sarandi beat Patronato 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 9, 2022.

Goals: F. Kruspzky (45').

Patronato controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.

Patronato vs Arsenal Sarandi — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 0–1 Arsenal Sarandi