Patronato 0–1 Almirante Brown: Result & Stats

Patronato

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Almirante Brown

N. Bazán 79'

6/14/2023

Primera Nacional · Group A - 10Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Patronato47%

×Draw29%

Almirante Brown24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatronatoExpected goals in this matchAlmirante Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.81

Patronato

1.25

Almirante Brown

0.81

Patronato creates 54% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 106 away

1.24

creates per match

0.86

0.76

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Patronato

1.24

Almirante Brown

0.86

allows per match

Patronato

0.76

Almirante Brown

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

Almirante Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Patronato or draw

76%

Patronato or Almirante Brown

71%

Draw or Almirante Brown

53%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+

21%

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals

71%

Patronato 2+ goals

36%

Patronato 3+ goals

13%

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

56%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

19%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)

66%

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 75 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.24 + Almirante Brown defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Almirante Brown attack 0.86 + Patronato defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Patronato scores more

47%

level

29%

Almirante Brown scores more

24%

Patronato at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

19'

27'

41'

46'

46'

J. Barinaga← F. Vázquez

56'

F. Mino

67'

N. Bazán← F. Miño

67'

J. Vázquez← D. García

71'

N. Solís← K. González

75'

I. Russo← A. Sosa

79'

J. Salva

79'

N. Bazán

86'

G. Novero← F. Cobos

87'

D. Ledesma← G. Rivero

90+2'

L. Pascual← J. Escurra

Patronato

Almirante

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Graciani

46'▲M. Levato←▼E. Díaz

46'▲J. Barinaga←▼F. Vázquez

71'▲N. Solís←▼K. González

75'▲I. Russo←▼A. Sosa

86'▲G. Novero←▼F. Cobos

Patronato substitutes

LevatoBarinagaSolísRussoNoveroRivasseauGeminianiKruspzkyValdez

Manager: G. Pinto

67'▲N. Bazán←▼F. Miño

67'▲J. Vázquez←▼D. García

87'▲D. Ledesma←▼G. Rivero

90+2'▲L. Pascual←▼J. Escurra

Almirante Brown substitutes

BazánVázquezLedesmaPascualCesarMiñoStableFerreyraLeguizamón