Patriotas vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 109+ matches
Patriotas43%
Internacional de Bogota28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Patriotas creates 34% more chances
Season form · 109 home / 169 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Patriotas ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Patriotas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.93 · 109 matches
Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 169 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Patriotas attack 1.06 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23
Internacional de Bogota attack 0.91 + Patriotas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Patriotas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima
Huila
Junior
Deportivo CaliPatriotas
Once Caldas
Millonarios
Envigado
Santa Fe
Jaguares
Bucaramanga
America De Cali
Deportivo Pasto
Chico
Leones FCDeportes TolimaOnce CaldasBucaramangaIndependiente MedellinJuniorSanta FeAtletico NacionalDeportivo CaliMillonariosAmerica De CaliEnvigadoChicoPatriotasHuilaDeportivo PastoJaguaresLeones FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Patriotas host Internacional de Bogota on Saturday, 24 August 2024 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera A 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Patriotas vs Internacional de Bogota
Patriotas and Internacional de Bogota drew 0-0 in Primera A on August 24, 2024.
Patriotas controlled possession (73%) and registered 22 shots to 4.
The match was played at Estadio de La Independencia in Tunja.