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Patriotas vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Patriotas
Patriotas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
D. López 74'
V. Moreno 46' (OG)
1/27/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 2Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Patriotas40%
×Draw29%
Independiente Medellin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patriotas
1.20
Independiente Medellin
1.03

Patriotas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 182 away

creates per match

Patriotas
1.06
Independiente Medellin
1.15

allows per match

Patriotas
0.91
Independiente Medellin
1.34

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw
69%
Patriotas or Independiente Medellin
71%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
60%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+
17%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals
70%
Patriotas 2+ goals
34%
Patriotas 3+ goals
12%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
64%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
28%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)
56%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 108 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 182 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.06 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Independiente Medellin attack 1.15 + Patriotas defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Patriotas scores more
40%
level
29%
Independiente Medellin scores more
31%

Patriotas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. PinedaIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · M
8.0

Match Events

46'
V. MorenoOwn goal
55'
F. Pardo← J. Hernández
55'
B. Castrillón← V. Hernández
56'
Victor Moreno
65'
J. Ramírez← Á. Orelien
72'
J. Ávila← J. Moreno
72'
L. Pons← J. Díaz
73'
G. Gutiérrez← Y. Gómez
74'
D. López
79'
Leonardo Flores
85'
Diber CambindoPenalty cancelled
90+4'
J. Mendoza← E. Bolaños
90+4'
M. Vidal← C. Barrios

Possession

40%Patriotas

Shots

5Patriotas

Pass accuracy

48%Patriotas

Statistics

PatriotasIndependiente
Overview
40%Possession60%
5Total Shots13
2Corners10
13Fouls10
Shots
5Total Shots13
3On Target5
2Off Target7
0Blocked1
2Inside Box9
3Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
347Total Passes481
278Accurate Passes424
80%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Primera A: Patriotas 2–0 Independiente Medellin

Patriotas beat Independiente Medellin 2-0 in Primera A on January 27, 2022.

Goals: V. Moreno (46' o.g.), D. López (74').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio de La Independencia in Tunja.