Patriotas 0–3 Independiente Medellin

Patriotas

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Independiente Medellin

G. Cano 64' (pen), 45+1' (pen)

J. Caicedo 12'

9/29/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Patriotas40%

×Draw29%

Independiente Medellin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatriotasExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.03

Patriotas

1.20

Independiente Medellin

1.03

Patriotas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 183 away

1.06

creates per match

1.15

0.91

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Patriotas

1.06

Independiente Medellin

1.15

allows per match

Patriotas

0.91

Independiente Medellin

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw

69%

Patriotas or Independiente Medellin

71%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

60%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+

17%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals

70%

Patriotas 2+ goals

34%

Patriotas 3+ goals

12%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

64%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

28%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)

56%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 108 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.06 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Independiente Medellin attack 1.15 + Patriotas defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Patriotas scores more

40%

level

29%

Independiente Medellin scores more

31%

Patriotas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. González

Independiente Medellin · G

8.9

Match Events

12'

J. Caicedo↳ A. Ricaurte

29'

Anibal Mello

41'

E. Mena← S. Roa

44'

Alejandro Otero

45+1'

G. CanoPenalty

46'

L. Bonilla← N. Carreño

63'

Miller Mosquera

64'

G. CanoPenalty

73'

E. Benavídez← O. Pérez

77'

Y. Anchico← B. Castrillón

81'

L. Luna← J. Caicedo

85'

J. Calle← L. Angulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PatriotasIndependiente

Overview

50%Possession50%

20Total Shots9

7Corners2

9Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots9

8On Target4

7Off Target3

5Blocked2

9Inside Box4

11Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

442Total Passes465

389Accurate Passes391

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2