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Patriotas vs Grêmio Maringá — Paranaense - 2 2020

Patriotas
Patriotas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
Emerson Sato 49'
5/26/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Atílio Gionédis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Patriotas73%
×Draw18%
Grêmio Maringá9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patriotas
2.13
Grêmio Maringá
0.61

Patriotas creates 249% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Patriotas
1.65
Grêmio Maringá
0.70

allows per match

Patriotas
0.53
Grêmio Maringá
2.60

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par
Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

Grêmio Maringá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw
91%
Patriotas or Grêmio Maringá
82%
Draw or Grêmio Maringá
27%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+
48%
Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals
88%
Patriotas 2+ goals
63%
Patriotas 3+ goals
35%
Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
46%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
13%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)
89%
Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Grêmio Maringá away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.65 + Grêmio Maringá defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.70 + Patriotas defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Patriotas scores more
73%
level
18%
Grêmio Maringá scores more
9%

Patriotas at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
Emerson Sato

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Patriotas 1–0 Grêmio Maringá

Patriotas beat Grêmio Maringá 1-0 in Paranaense - 2 on May 26, 2024.

Goals: Emerson Sato (49').

The match was played at Estádio Atílio Gionédis in Campo Largo, Paraná.