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Patriotas vs Foz Do Iguacu — Paranaense - 2 2025

Patriotas
Patriotas
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacu
Unknown 82', 46', 28'
Kaua 68', 14'
5/31/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Patriotas29%
×Draw24%
Foz Do Iguacu47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patriotas
1.25
Foz Do Iguacu
1.65

Foz Do Iguacu creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Patriotas
1.40
Foz Do Iguacu
1.09

allows per match

Patriotas
2.20
Foz Do Iguacu
1.09

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par
Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw
53%
Patriotas or Foz Do Iguacu
76%
Draw or Foz Do Iguacu
71%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+
12%
Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals
71%
Patriotas 2+ goals
36%
Patriotas 3+ goals
13%
Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
81%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
49%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)
38%
Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.40 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Foz Do Iguacu attack 1.09 + Patriotas defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Patriotas scores more
29%
level
24%
Foz Do Iguacu scores more
47%

Foz Do Iguacu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Foz Do Iguacu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Kaua
28'
46'
68'
Kaua
82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Patriotas vs Foz Do Iguacu

Foz Do Iguacu beat Patriotas 5-2 in Paranaense - 2 on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Kaua (14', 68'), ? (28', 46', 82').

The match was played at Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah in Paranaguá, Paraná.