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Patriotas vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Patriotas
Patriotas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
4/3/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 14Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Patriotas35%
×Draw30%
Atletico Nacional35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patriotas
1.07
Atletico Nacional
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 195 away

creates per match

Patriotas
1.06
Atletico Nacional
1.22

allows per match

Patriotas
0.93
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw
65%
Patriotas or Atletico Nacional
70%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
65%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+
14%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals
66%
Patriotas 2+ goals
29%
Patriotas 3+ goals
9%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
66%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)
50%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.93 · 109 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 195 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.06 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Atletico Nacional attack 1.22 + Patriotas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Patriotas scores more
35%
level
30%
Atletico Nacional scores more
35%

Patriotas at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Patriotas 0–2 Atletico Nacional

Atletico Nacional beat Patriotas 2-0 in Primera A on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio de La Independencia in Tunja.