Patriotas 3–1 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Patriotas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Nacional

C. Mosquera 90+3'

O. Álvarez 67'

I. Rivas 43'

D. Moreno 6' (pen)

2/16/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 3Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Patriotas35%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatriotasExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.06

Patriotas

1.07

Atletico Nacional

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 194 away

1.06

creates per match

1.22

0.91

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Patriotas

1.06

Atletico Nacional

1.22

allows per match

Patriotas

0.91

Atletico Nacional

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw

65%

Patriotas or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

65%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals

66%

Patriotas 2+ goals

29%

Patriotas 3+ goals

9%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)

50%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 108 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.06 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Atletico Nacional attack 1.22 + Patriotas defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Patriotas scores more

35%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

35%

Patriotas at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

C. Mosquera

Patriotas · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

Anibal Mello

6'

D. MorenoPenalty

27'

37'

43'

51'

54'

M. Torres← G. Castellani

56'

R. Delgado← C. Mafla

58'

Nicolas Palacios

62'

C. Mosquera← D. Álvarez

65'

Iván Rivas

67'

O. Álvarez↳ C. Mosquera

68'

Oswal Alvarez

75'

Diego Martínez

77'

D. Monsalve← O. Pérez

77'

S. Lucumí← D. Moreno

86'

J. Velásquez← O. Álvarez

90+3'

C. Mosquera↳ J. Velásquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PatriotasAtletico

Overview

38%Possession62%

15Total Shots11

3Corners3

16Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target1

7Off Target7

2Blocked3

12Inside Box4

3Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

322Total Passes523

260Accurate Passes464

81%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1