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Patriotas vs AA Iguaçu — Paranaense - 2 2025

Patriotas
Patriotas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AA Iguaçu
AA Iguaçu
Thawan 24'
5/3/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Patriotas38%
×Draw24%
AA Iguaçu38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patriotas
1.55
AA Iguaçu
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Patriotas
1.40
AA Iguaçu
0.90

allows per match

Patriotas
2.20
AA Iguaçu
1.70

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par
AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

AA Iguaçu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw
62%
Patriotas or AA Iguaçu
76%
Draw or AA Iguaçu
62%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+
19%
AA Iguaçu wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals
79%
Patriotas 2+ goals
46%
Patriotas 3+ goals
20%
AA Iguaçu 1+ goals
79%
AA Iguaçu 2+ goals
46%
AA Iguaçu 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)
50%
AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

AA Iguaçu away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.40 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

AA Iguaçu attack 0.90 + Patriotas defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Patriotas scores more
38%
level
24%
AA Iguaçu scores more
38%

Patriotas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Thawan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Patriotas vs AA Iguaçu

Patriotas beat AA Iguaçu 2-1 in Paranaense - 2 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: Thawan (24').

The match was played at Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah in Paranaguá, Paraná.