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Patriotas U20 vs Rolândia U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Patriotas U20
Patriotas U20
FT
4 – 0
Rolândia U20
Rolândia U20
5/25/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 11CT Toca do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Patriotas U2053%
×Draw22%
Rolândia U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patriotas U20
1.90
Rolândia U20
1.21

Patriotas U20 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

creates per match

Patriotas U20
1.96
Rolândia U20
1.17

allows per match

Patriotas U20
1.25
Rolândia U20
1.83

finishing

Patriotas U20+0.00on par
Rolândia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas U20 ↓

Rolândia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Patriotas U20 or draw
76%
Patriotas U20 or Rolândia U20
78%
Draw or Rolândia U20
47%

Winning margin

Patriotas U20 wins by 2+
31%
Rolândia U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Patriotas U20 1+ goals
85%
Patriotas U20 2+ goals
56%
Patriotas U20 3+ goals
29%
Rolândia U20 1+ goals
70%
Rolândia U20 2+ goals
34%
Rolândia U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Patriotas U20 (draw refunded)
69%
Rolândia U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas U20 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Rolândia U20 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas U20 attack 1.96 + Rolândia U20 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.90

Rolândia U20 attack 1.17 + Patriotas U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Patriotas U20 scores more
53%
level
22%
Rolândia U20 scores more
24%

Patriotas U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Patriotas U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Patriotas U20 vs Rolândia U20

Patriotas U20 beat Rolândia U20 4-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at CT Toca do Jacaré in Curitiba, Paraná.