Patriotas U20 6–0 Prudentópolis U20: Result & Stats

Patriotas U20

FT

6 – 0

Prudentópolis U20

4/13/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 5CT Toca do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Patriotas U2081%

×Draw11%

Prudentópolis U208%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Patriotas U20Expected goals in this matchPrudentópolis U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.31

0.96

Patriotas U20

3.31

Prudentópolis U20

0.96

Patriotas U20 creates 245% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

1.96

creates per match

0.67

1.25

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Patriotas U20

1.96

Prudentópolis U20

0.67

allows per match

Patriotas U20

1.25

Prudentópolis U20

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patriotas U20+0.00on par

Prudentópolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas U20 ↓

Prudentópolis U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Patriotas U20 or draw

92%

Patriotas U20 or Prudentópolis U20

89%

Draw or Prudentópolis U20

19%

Winning margin

Patriotas U20 wins by 2+

63%

Prudentópolis U20 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Patriotas U20 1+ goals

96%

Patriotas U20 2+ goals

83%

Patriotas U20 3+ goals

62%

Prudentópolis U20 1+ goals

62%

Prudentópolis U20 2+ goals

25%

Prudentópolis U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Patriotas U20 (draw refunded)

91%

Prudentópolis U20 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas U20 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Prudentópolis U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas U20 attack 1.96 + Prudentópolis U20 defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.31

Prudentópolis U20 attack 0.67 + Patriotas U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Patriotas U20 scores more

81%

level

11%

Prudentópolis U20 scores more

8%

Patriotas U20 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Patriotas U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff