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Paterna vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Paterna
Paterna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 15Estadio Municipal Gerardo Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Paterna33%
×Draw27%
Villarreal III40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paterna
1.15
Villarreal III
1.29

Villarreal III creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 112 away

creates per match

Paterna
1.07
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Paterna
1.21
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Paterna+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paterna ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Paterna or draw
60%
Paterna or Villarreal III
73%
Draw or Villarreal III
67%

Winning margin

Paterna wins by 2+
13%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Paterna 1+ goals
68%
Paterna 2+ goals
32%
Paterna 3+ goals
11%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
72%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
37%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Paterna (draw refunded)
45%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paterna at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paterna attack 1.07 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Paterna defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paterna scores more
33%
level
27%
Villarreal III scores more
40%

Villarreal III at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paterna 1 – 0 Villarreal III

Paterna beat Villarreal III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Gerardo Salvador in Paterna.