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Paterna vs Benigànim — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Paterna
Paterna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Benigànim
Benigànim
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 6Estadio Municipal Gerardo Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Paterna59%
×Draw22%
Benigànim19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paterna
1.87
Benigànim
0.95

Paterna creates 97% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

creates per match

Paterna
1.07
Benigànim
0.70

allows per match

Paterna
1.21
Benigànim
2.66

finishing

Paterna+0.00on par
Benigànim+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paterna ↓

Benigànim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Paterna or draw
81%
Paterna or Benigànim
78%
Draw or Benigànim
41%

Winning margin

Paterna wins by 2+
34%
Benigànim wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paterna 1+ goals
85%
Paterna 2+ goals
56%
Paterna 3+ goals
29%
Benigànim 1+ goals
61%
Benigànim 2+ goals
25%
Benigànim 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paterna (draw refunded)
76%
Benigànim (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paterna at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Benigànim away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paterna attack 1.07 + Benigànim defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.87

Benigànim attack 0.70 + Paterna defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Paterna scores more
59%
level
22%
Benigànim scores more
19%

Paterna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Paterna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Paterna 1–2 Benigànim

Benigànim beat Paterna 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Gerardo Salvador in Paterna.