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Patacona vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Patacona
Patacona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
4/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 30Campo Municipal de la Patacona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Patacona29%
×Draw28%
Villarreal III43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patacona
1.04
Villarreal III
1.33

Villarreal III creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 112 away

creates per match

Patacona
0.86
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Patacona
1.29
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Patacona+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patacona ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Patacona or draw
57%
Patacona or Villarreal III
72%
Draw or Villarreal III
71%

Winning margin

Patacona wins by 2+
11%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Patacona 1+ goals
65%
Patacona 2+ goals
28%
Patacona 3+ goals
9%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
74%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
38%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Patacona (draw refunded)
40%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patacona at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patacona attack 0.86 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Patacona defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Patacona scores more
29%
level
28%
Villarreal III scores more
43%

Villarreal III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Patacona 1–1 Villarreal III

Patacona and Villarreal III drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de la Patacona in Alboraya.