Patacona 1–1 Vall de Uxó: Result & Stats

Patacona

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vall de Uxó

11/23/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Campo Municipal de la Patacona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Patacona34%

×Draw30%

Vall de Uxó36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PataconaExpected goals in this matchVall de Uxó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.07

Patacona

1.03

Vall de Uxó

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

0.86

creates per match

0.85

1.29

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Patacona

0.86

Vall de Uxó

0.85

allows per match

Patacona

1.29

Vall de Uxó

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patacona+0.00on par

Vall de Uxó+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patacona ↓

Vall de Uxó →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Patacona or draw

64%

Patacona or Vall de Uxó

70%

Draw or Vall de Uxó

66%

Winning margin

Patacona wins by 2+

13%

Vall de Uxó wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Patacona 1+ goals

64%

Patacona 2+ goals

28%

Patacona 3+ goals

Vall de Uxó 1+ goals

66%

Vall de Uxó 2+ goals

29%

Vall de Uxó 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Patacona (draw refunded)

49%

Vall de Uxó (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Patacona at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Vall de Uxó away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Patacona attack 0.86 + Vall de Uxó defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Vall de Uxó attack 0.85 + Patacona defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Patacona scores more

34%

level

30%

Vall de Uxó scores more

36%

Vall de Uxó at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vall de Uxó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff