Patacona 1–0 Utiel: Result & Stats

Patacona

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Utiel

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 19Campo de Fútbol Miguel Monleón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Patacona31%

×Draw30%

Utiel39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PataconaExpected goals in this matchUtiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.14

Patacona

0.99

Utiel

1.14

Utiel creates 15% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

0.86

creates per match

0.98

1.29

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Patacona

0.86

Utiel

0.98

allows per match

Patacona

1.29

Utiel

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patacona+0.00on par

Utiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patacona ↓

Utiel →

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Patacona or draw

61%

Patacona or Utiel

70%

Draw or Utiel

69%

Winning margin

Patacona wins by 2+

12%

Utiel wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Patacona 1+ goals

63%

Patacona 2+ goals

26%

Patacona 3+ goals

Utiel 1+ goals

68%

Utiel 2+ goals

32%

Utiel 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Patacona (draw refunded)

45%

Utiel (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Patacona at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Utiel away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Patacona attack 0.86 + Utiel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Utiel attack 0.98 + Patacona defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Patacona scores more

31%

level

30%

Utiel scores more

39%

Utiel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Utiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff