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Patacona vs Ontinyent 1931 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Patacona
Patacona
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
2/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 21Campo Municipal de la Patacona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Patacona33%
×Draw29%
Ontinyent 193138%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patacona
1.04
Ontinyent 1931
1.14

Ontinyent 1931 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

creates per match

Patacona
0.86
Ontinyent 1931
0.98

allows per match

Patacona
1.29
Ontinyent 1931
1.22

finishing

Patacona+0.00on par
Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patacona ↓

Ontinyent 1931 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Patacona or draw
62%
Patacona or Ontinyent 1931
71%
Draw or Ontinyent 1931
67%

Winning margin

Patacona wins by 2+
13%
Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Patacona 1+ goals
65%
Patacona 2+ goals
28%
Patacona 3+ goals
9%
Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
68%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
32%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Patacona (draw refunded)
46%
Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patacona at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Ontinyent 1931 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patacona attack 0.86 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ontinyent 1931 attack 0.98 + Patacona defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Patacona scores more
33%
level
29%
Ontinyent 1931 scores more
38%

Ontinyent 1931 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Patacona vs Ontinyent 1931

Ontinyent 1931 beat Patacona 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de la Patacona in Alboraya.