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Patacona vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Patacona
Patacona
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elche II
Elche II
12/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 13Campo Municipal de la Patacona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Patacona27%
×Draw29%
Elche II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patacona
0.94
Elche II
1.27

Elche II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 77 away

creates per match

Patacona
0.86
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Patacona
1.29
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Patacona+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patacona ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Patacona or draw
56%
Patacona or Elche II
71%
Draw or Elche II
73%

Winning margin

Patacona wins by 2+
10%
Elche II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Patacona 1+ goals
61%
Patacona 2+ goals
24%
Patacona 3+ goals
7%
Elche II 1+ goals
72%
Elche II 2+ goals
36%
Elche II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Patacona (draw refunded)
38%
Elche II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patacona at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patacona attack 0.86 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Elche II attack 1.25 + Patacona defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Patacona scores more
27%
level
29%
Elche II scores more
44%

Elche II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Patacona 2–0 Elche II

Patacona beat Elche II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de la Patacona in Alboraya.