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Patacona vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Patacona
Patacona
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Castellón II
Castellón II
10/19/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 7Campo Municipal de la Patacona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Patacona35%
×Draw27%
Castellón II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patacona
1.20
Castellón II
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 67 away

creates per match

Patacona
0.86
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Patacona
1.29
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Patacona+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patacona ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Patacona or draw
62%
Patacona or Castellón II
73%
Draw or Castellón II
65%

Winning margin

Patacona wins by 2+
15%
Castellón II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Patacona 1+ goals
70%
Patacona 2+ goals
34%
Patacona 3+ goals
12%
Castellón II 1+ goals
71%
Castellón II 2+ goals
36%
Castellón II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Patacona (draw refunded)
48%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patacona at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patacona attack 0.86 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Patacona defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Patacona scores more
35%
level
27%
Castellón II scores more
38%

Castellón II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Patacona 2–5 Castellón II

Castellón II beat Patacona 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de la Patacona in Alboraya.