Pastoreo 1–3 Sportivo Trinidense: Result & Stats

Pastoreo

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Sportivo Trinidense

9/17/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 27Estadio Municipal de Campo 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Pastoreo37%

×Draw27%

Sportivo Trinidense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PastoreoExpected goals in this matchSportivo Trinidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.21

Pastoreo

1.23

Sportivo Trinidense

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

1.13

creates per match

1.34

1.07

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Pastoreo

1.13

Sportivo Trinidense

1.34

allows per match

Pastoreo

1.07

Sportivo Trinidense

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw

64%

Pastoreo or Sportivo Trinidense

73%

Draw or Sportivo Trinidense

63%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+

16%

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals

71%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

35%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

13%

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

70%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

34%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

51%

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.34 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pastoreo scores more

37%

level

27%

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

36%

Pastoreo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff