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Pastoreo vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Intermedia 2018

Pastoreo
Pastoreo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
9/5/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 25Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pastoreo30%
×Draw30%
Sportivo Luqueno40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pastoreo
0.96
Sportivo Luqueno
1.14

Sportivo Luqueno creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pastoreo
1.13
Sportivo Luqueno
1.20

allows per match

Pastoreo
1.07
Sportivo Luqueno
0.80

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw
60%
Pastoreo or Sportivo Luqueno
70%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
70%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+
11%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals
62%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
25%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
7%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
68%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
32%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)
43%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.20 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pastoreo scores more
30%
level
30%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
40%

Sportivo Luqueno at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Pastoreo 1–1 Sportivo Luqueno

Pastoreo and Sportivo Luqueno drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on September 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.