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Pastoreo vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Pastoreo
Pastoreo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
V. Arguello 54'
R. M. Escobar Chena 86'
C. Perez 76'
7/16/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Complejo Deportivo Virgen María Auxiliadora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Pastoreo47%
×Draw26%
Sportivo Iteno27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pastoreo
1.48
Sportivo Iteno
1.04

Pastoreo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

creates per match

Pastoreo
1.13
Sportivo Iteno
1.00

allows per match

Pastoreo
1.07
Sportivo Iteno
1.84

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw
73%
Pastoreo or Sportivo Iteno
74%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
53%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+
24%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals
77%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
43%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
19%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
65%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
28%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)
64%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sportivo Iteno attack 1.00 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pastoreo scores more
47%
level
26%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
27%

Pastoreo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
V. Arguello
76'
C. Perez
86'
R. M. Escobar Chena

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pastoreo vs Sportivo Iteno

Sportivo Iteno beat Pastoreo 2-1 in Division Intermedia on July 16, 2022.

Goals: V. Arguello (54'), C. Perez (76'), R. M. Escobar Chena (86').

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Virgen María Auxiliadora in Minga Guazú.