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Pastoreo vs Resistencia — Division Intermedia 2018

Pastoreo
Pastoreo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Resistencia
Resistencia
J. Heinze 77'
A. Rojas 23'
R. Solis 18'
R. F. Vera Encina 6' (pen)
6/15/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 13Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Pastoreo38%
×Draw28%
Resistencia34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pastoreo
1.19
Resistencia
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 83 away

creates per match

Pastoreo
1.13
Resistencia
1.16

allows per match

Pastoreo
1.07
Resistencia
1.25

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par
Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw
66%
Pastoreo or Resistencia
72%
Draw or Resistencia
62%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+
16%
Resistencia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals
70%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
33%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
12%
Resistencia 1+ goals
67%
Resistencia 2+ goals
30%
Resistencia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)
53%
Resistencia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Resistencia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Resistencia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Resistencia attack 1.16 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pastoreo scores more
38%
level
28%
Resistencia scores more
34%

Pastoreo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
R. F. Vera EncinaPenalty
18'
R. Solis
23'
A. Rojas
77'
J. Heinze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Pastoreo 3–1 Resistencia

Pastoreo beat Resistencia 3-1 in Division Intermedia on June 15, 2025.

Goals: R. F. Vera Encina (6' pen), R. Solis (18'), A. Rojas (23'), J. Heinze (77').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda in Ciudad del Este.