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Pastoreo vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Pastoreo
Pastoreo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
8/23/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Municipal de Campo 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Pastoreo42%
×Draw29%
Martin Ledesma29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pastoreo
1.23
Martin Ledesma
0.97

Pastoreo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

Pastoreo
1.13
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

Pastoreo
1.07
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw
71%
Pastoreo or Martin Ledesma
71%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
58%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+
19%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals
71%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
35%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
13%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
62%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
25%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)
59%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pastoreo scores more
42%
level
29%
Martin Ledesma scores more
29%

Pastoreo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pastoreo vs Martin Ledesma

Pastoreo beat Martin Ledesma 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Campo 9 in Doctor Juan Eulogio Estigarribia.