Pastoreo 1–0 Guairena FC: Result & Stats

Pastoreo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guairena FC

R. Borja 8'

9/14/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Pastoreo37%

×Draw30%

Guairena FC33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PastoreoExpected goals in this matchGuairena FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.02

Pastoreo

1.10

Guairena FC

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 66 away

1.13

creates per match

0.98

1.07

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Pastoreo

1.13

Guairena FC

0.98

allows per match

Pastoreo

1.07

Guairena FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Guairena FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw

67%

Pastoreo or Guairena FC

70%

Draw or Guairena FC

63%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+

15%

Guairena FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals

67%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

30%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

10%

Guairena FC 1+ goals

64%

Guairena FC 2+ goals

27%

Guairena FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

53%

Guairena FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Guairena FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Guairena FC attack 0.98 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pastoreo scores more

37%

level

30%

Guairena FC scores more

33%

Pastoreo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

R. Borja

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff