Pastoreo 2–0 Fernando De La Mora: Result & Stats

Pastoreo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fernando De La Mora

8/18/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Pastoreo38%

×Draw28%

Fernando De La Mora34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PastoreoExpected goals in this matchFernando De La Mora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.11

Pastoreo

1.20

Fernando De La Mora

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 113 away

1.13

creates per match

1.16

1.07

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Pastoreo

1.13

Fernando De La Mora

1.16

allows per match

Pastoreo

1.07

Fernando De La Mora

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Fernando De La Mora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw

66%

Pastoreo or Fernando De La Mora

72%

Draw or Fernando De La Mora

62%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+

16%

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals

70%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

34%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

12%

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals

67%

Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals

30%

Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

53%

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pastoreo scores more

38%

level

28%

Fernando De La Mora scores more

34%

Pastoreo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff