Pastoreo 2–1 Deportivo Santani: Result & Stats

Pastoreo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Deportivo Santani

6/27/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Parque del Guairá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Pastoreo39%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Santani33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PastoreoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Santani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Pastoreo

1.23

Deportivo Santani

1.10

Pastoreo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 85 away

1.13

creates per match

1.13

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Pastoreo

1.13

Deportivo Santani

1.13

allows per match

Pastoreo

1.07

Deportivo Santani

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Deportivo Santani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw

67%

Pastoreo or Deportivo Santani

72%

Draw or Deportivo Santani

61%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+

17%

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals

71%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

35%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Santani 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Santani 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

54%

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Deportivo Santani away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Santani attack 1.13 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pastoreo scores more

39%

level

28%

Deportivo Santani scores more

33%

Pastoreo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff