Pastoreo 0–1 Deportivo Recoleta: Result & Stats

Pastoreo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Recoleta

A. E. Avalos Canete 48'

6/25/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Municipal de Campo 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pastoreo34%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Recoleta38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PastoreoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Recoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.23

Pastoreo

1.13

Deportivo Recoleta

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.13

creates per match

1.40

1.07

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Pastoreo

1.13

Deportivo Recoleta

1.40

allows per match

Pastoreo

1.07

Deportivo Recoleta

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw

62%

Pastoreo or Deportivo Recoleta

72%

Draw or Deportivo Recoleta

66%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+

14%

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals

68%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

31%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

47%

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.40 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pastoreo scores more

34%

level

28%

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

38%

Deportivo Recoleta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

A. E. Avalos Canete

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff