Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pastoreo vs Club River Plate — Division Intermedia 2018

Pastoreo
Pastoreo
FT
1 – 0
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
5/14/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 7Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Pastoreo39%
×Draw29%
Club River Plate32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pastoreo
1.19
Club River Plate
1.06

Pastoreo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 47 away

creates per match

Pastoreo
1.13
Club River Plate
1.04

allows per match

Pastoreo
1.07
Club River Plate
1.26

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw
68%
Pastoreo or Club River Plate
71%
Draw or Club River Plate
61%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+
17%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals
70%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
33%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
12%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
65%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
29%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)
55%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Club River Plate defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Club River Plate attack 1.04 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pastoreo scores more
39%
level
29%
Club River Plate scores more
32%

Pastoreo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Pastoreo 1–0 Club River Plate

Pastoreo beat Club River Plate 1-0 in Division Intermedia on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.