Pastoreo 4–2 24 de Setiembre: Result & Stats

Pastoreo

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

24 de Setiembre

9/10/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Municipal de Campo 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pastoreo47%

×Draw26%

24 de Setiembre27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PastoreoExpected goals in this match24 de Setiembre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Pastoreo

1.46

24 de Setiembre

1.04

Pastoreo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Pastoreo

1.13

24 de Setiembre

1.00

allows per match

Pastoreo

1.07

24 de Setiembre

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par

24 de Setiembre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

24 de Setiembre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw

73%

Pastoreo or 24 de Setiembre

74%

Draw or 24 de Setiembre

53%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+

23%

24 de Setiembre wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals

77%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

43%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

18%

24 de Setiembre 1+ goals

65%

24 de Setiembre 2+ goals

28%

24 de Setiembre 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

63%

24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

24 de Setiembre away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

24 de Setiembre attack 1.00 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pastoreo scores more

47%

level

26%

24 de Setiembre scores more

27%

Pastoreo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff