Passo Fundo 1–1 Sao Jose: Result & Stats

Passo Fundo

FT

1 – 1

Sao Jose

9/5/2024

Copa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Vermelhão da Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Passo Fundo42%

×Draw33%

Sao Jose25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Passo FundoExpected goals in this matchSao Jose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.70

Passo Fundo

1.01

Sao Jose

0.70

Passo Fundo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

0.40

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Passo Fundo

1.20

Sao Jose

1.00

allows per match

Passo Fundo

0.40

Sao Jose

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Passo Fundo+0.00on par

Sao Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Passo Fundo ↓

Sao Jose →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Passo Fundo or draw

75%

Passo Fundo or Sao Jose

67%

Draw or Sao Jose

58%

Winning margin

Passo Fundo wins by 2+

16%

Sao Jose wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Passo Fundo 1+ goals

64%

Passo Fundo 2+ goals

27%

Passo Fundo 3+ goals

8%

Sao Jose 1+ goals

50%

Sao Jose 2+ goals

16%

Sao Jose 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Passo Fundo (draw refunded)

63%

Sao Jose (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Passo Fundo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Sao Jose away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Passo Fundo attack 1.20 + Sao Jose defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Sao Jose attack 1.00 + Passo Fundo defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Passo Fundo scores more

42%

level

33%

Sao Jose scores more

25%

Passo Fundo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Passo Fundo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff