Passo Fundo 4–0 Juventude II: Result & Stats

Passo Fundo

FT

4 – 0

Juventude II

9/27/2024

Copa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Vermelhão da Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Passo Fundo64%

×Draw24%

Juventude II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Passo FundoExpected goals in this matchJuventude II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.56

Passo Fundo

1.65

Juventude II

0.56

Passo Fundo creates 195% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

0.73

0.40

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Passo Fundo

1.20

Juventude II

0.73

allows per match

Passo Fundo

0.40

Juventude II

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Passo Fundo+0.00on par

Juventude II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Passo Fundo ↓

Juventude II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Passo Fundo or draw

88%

Passo Fundo or Juventude II

76%

Draw or Juventude II

36%

Winning margin

Passo Fundo wins by 2+

36%

Juventude II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Passo Fundo 1+ goals

81%

Passo Fundo 2+ goals

49%

Passo Fundo 3+ goals

23%

Juventude II 1+ goals

43%

Juventude II 2+ goals

11%

Juventude II 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Passo Fundo (draw refunded)

84%

Juventude II (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Passo Fundo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Juventude II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Passo Fundo attack 1.20 + Juventude II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.65

Juventude II attack 0.73 + Passo Fundo defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Passo Fundo scores more

64%

level

24%

Juventude II scores more

12%

Passo Fundo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Passo Fundo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff