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Pascoe Vale vs Werribee City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
FT
2 – 1
Werribee City
Werribee City
8/19/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 26CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pascoe Vale53%
×Draw21%
Werribee City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
2.12
Werribee City
1.45

Pascoe Vale creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.90
Werribee City
1.29

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
1.61
Werribee City
2.33

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Werribee City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Werribee City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
74%
Pascoe Vale or Werribee City
79%
Draw or Werribee City
47%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
31%
Werribee City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
88%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
62%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
35%
Werribee City 1+ goals
77%
Werribee City 2+ goals
42%
Werribee City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
67%
Werribee City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Werribee City away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.90 + Werribee City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.12

Werribee City attack 1.29 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
53%
level
21%
Werribee City scores more
26%

Pascoe Vale at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pascoe Vale vs Werribee City

Pascoe Vale beat Werribee City 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.