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Pascoe Vale vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
CANC
05:00
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
9/11/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 10CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pascoe Vale41%
×Draw24%
Moreland Zebras35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
1.65
Moreland Zebras
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.90
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
1.61
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
65%
Pascoe Vale or Moreland Zebras
76%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
59%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
21%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
81%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
49%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
23%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
78%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
45%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
54%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.90 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
41%
level
24%
Moreland Zebras scores more
35%

Pascoe Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pascoe Vale host Moreland Zebras

September 11, 2021: Pascoe Vale take on Moreland Zebras in Victoria NPL 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pascoe Vale host Moreland Zebras at CB Smith Reserve.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.