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Pascoe Vale vs Melbourne City II — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
FT
2 – 4
Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
6/16/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pascoe Vale36%
×Draw22%
Melbourne City II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
1.68
Melbourne City II
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 39 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.90
Melbourne City II
2.03

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
1.61
Melbourne City II
1.46

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Melbourne City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
58%
Pascoe Vale or Melbourne City II
78%
Draw or Melbourne City II
64%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
18%
Melbourne City II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
81%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
50%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
24%
Melbourne City II 1+ goals
84%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
54%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
46%
Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.90 + Melbourne City II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.68

Melbourne City II attack 2.03 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
36%
level
22%
Melbourne City II scores more
42%

Melbourne City II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Pascoe Vale 2–4 Melbourne City II

Melbourne City II beat Pascoe Vale 4-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 16, 2023.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.