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Pascoe Vale vs Manningham United Blues — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
FT
4 – 4
Manningham United Blues
Manningham United Blues
7/10/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 15CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pascoe Vale46%
×Draw22%
Manningham United Blues33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
1.98
Manningham United Blues
1.65

Pascoe Vale creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 54 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.90
Manningham United Blues
1.69

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
1.61
Manningham United Blues
2.06

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Manningham United Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Manningham United Blues →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
67%
Pascoe Vale or Manningham United Blues
78%
Draw or Manningham United Blues
54%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
26%
Manningham United Blues wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
86%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
59%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
31%
Manningham United Blues 1+ goals
81%
Manningham United Blues 2+ goals
49%
Manningham United Blues 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
58%
Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Manningham United Blues away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.90 + Manningham United Blues defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Manningham United Blues attack 1.69 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
46%
level
22%
Manningham United Blues scores more
33%

Pascoe Vale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pascoe Vale vs Manningham United Blues

Pascoe Vale and Manningham United Blues drew 4-4 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.