Pascoe Vale 2–2 Hume City: Result & Stats

Pascoe Vale

FT

2 – 2

Hume City

7/26/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 23CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pascoe Vale33%

×Draw22%

Hume City46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pascoe ValeExpected goals in this matchHume City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.96

Pascoe Vale

1.63

Hume City

1.96

Hume City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

1.69

creates per match

1.70

2.23

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Pascoe Vale

1.69

Hume City

1.70

allows per match

Pascoe Vale

2.23

Hume City

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Hume City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Hume City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw

54%

Pascoe Vale or Hume City

78%

Draw or Hume City

67%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

16%

Hume City wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

80%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

48%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

22%

Hume City 1+ goals

86%

Hume City 2+ goals

58%

Hume City 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

42%

Hume City (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Hume City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.69 + Hume City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hume City attack 1.70 + Pascoe Vale defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more

33%

level

22%

Hume City scores more

46%

Hume City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hume City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff