Pascoe Vale 2–2 Bulleen Lions: Result & Stats

Pascoe Vale

FT

2 – 2

Bulleen Lions

4/21/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 10CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pascoe Vale46%

×Draw23%

Bulleen Lions31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pascoe ValeExpected goals in this matchBulleen Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.43

Pascoe Vale

1.80

Bulleen Lions

1.43

Pascoe Vale creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 66 away

1.90

creates per match

1.24

1.61

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Pascoe Vale

1.90

Bulleen Lions

1.24

allows per match

Pascoe Vale

1.61

Bulleen Lions

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Bulleen Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw

69%

Pascoe Vale or Bulleen Lions

77%

Draw or Bulleen Lions

54%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

25%

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

83%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

54%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

27%

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals

76%

Bulleen Lions 2+ goals

42%

Bulleen Lions 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

60%

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Bulleen Lions away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.90 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bulleen Lions attack 1.24 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more

46%

level

23%

Bulleen Lions scores more

31%

Pascoe Vale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff