Pascoe Vale 2–5 Avondale: Result & Stats

Pascoe Vale

FT

2 – 5

Avondale

6/21/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 18CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pascoe Vale24%

×Draw20%

Avondale55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pascoe ValeExpected goals in this matchAvondale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.23

Pascoe Vale

1.43

Avondale

2.23

Avondale creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

1.69

creates per match

2.22

2.23

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Pascoe Vale

1.69

Avondale

2.22

allows per match

Pascoe Vale

2.23

Avondale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Avondale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw

45%

Pascoe Vale or Avondale

80%

Draw or Avondale

76%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

11%

Avondale wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

76%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

42%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

17%

Avondale 1+ goals

89%

Avondale 2+ goals

65%

Avondale 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

31%

Avondale (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.69 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.43

Avondale attack 2.22 + Pascoe Vale defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more

24%

level

20%

Avondale scores more

55%

Avondale at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff