Pascoe Vale 5–2 Altona Magic: Result & Stats

Pascoe Vale

FT

5 – 2

Altona Magic

5/17/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 13CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pascoe Vale41%

×Draw22%

Altona Magic37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pascoe ValeExpected goals in this matchAltona Magic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.81

Pascoe Vale

1.92

Altona Magic

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

1.69

creates per match

1.40

2.23

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Pascoe Vale

1.69

Altona Magic

1.40

allows per match

Pascoe Vale

2.23

Altona Magic

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Altona Magic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Altona Magic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw

63%

Pascoe Vale or Altona Magic

78%

Draw or Altona Magic

59%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

22%

Altona Magic wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

85%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

57%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

30%

Altona Magic 1+ goals

84%

Altona Magic 2+ goals

54%

Altona Magic 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

53%

Altona Magic (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Altona Magic away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.69 + Altona Magic defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.92

Altona Magic attack 1.40 + Pascoe Vale defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more

41%

level

22%

Altona Magic scores more

37%

Pascoe Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff