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Pasaia KE vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tolosa
Tolosa
11/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Estadio Don Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Pasaia KE41%
×Draw27%
Tolosa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pasaia KE
1.33
Tolosa
1.14

Pasaia KE creates 17% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 48 away

creates per match

Pasaia KE
0.93
Tolosa
0.96

allows per match

Pasaia KE
1.31
Tolosa
1.73

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par
Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Tolosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw
68%
Pasaia KE or Tolosa
73%
Draw or Tolosa
59%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+
19%
Tolosa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals
74%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
38%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
15%
Tolosa 1+ goals
68%
Tolosa 2+ goals
32%
Tolosa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
56%
Tolosa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pasaia KE scores more
41%
level
27%
Tolosa scores more
32%

Pasaia KE at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Pasaia KE 0–2 Tolosa

Tolosa beat Pasaia KE 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Don Bosco in Pasajes-Pasaia.