Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pasaia KE vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
3/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Pasaia KE33%
×Draw29%
San Ignacio38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pasaia KE
1.05
San Ignacio
1.15

San Ignacio creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

creates per match

Pasaia KE
0.93
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Pasaia KE
1.31
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw
62%
Pasaia KE or San Ignacio
71%
Draw or San Ignacio
67%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+
13%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals
65%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
28%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
9%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
68%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
32%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
46%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pasaia KE scores more
33%
level
29%
San Ignacio scores more
38%

San Ignacio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pasaia KE vs San Ignacio

Pasaia KE and San Ignacio drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora in Errenteria.