Pasaia KE 2–1 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

Pasaia KE

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Sociedad III

9/14/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Estadio Don Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Pasaia KE32%

×Draw26%

Real Sociedad III43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pasaia KEExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.48

Pasaia KE

1.23

Real Sociedad III

1.48

Real Sociedad III creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 44 away

0.93

creates per match

1.66

1.31

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Pasaia KE

0.93

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Pasaia KE

1.31

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw

57%

Pasaia KE or Real Sociedad III

74%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

68%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

13%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

71%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

35%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

13%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

77%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

43%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

42%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pasaia KE scores more

32%

level

26%

Real Sociedad III scores more

43%

Real Sociedad III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Pasaia KE 2–1 Real Sociedad III

Pasaia KE beat Real Sociedad III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Don Bosco in Pasajes-Pasaia.

Pasaia KE vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Pasaia KE 2–1 Real Sociedad III