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Pasaia KE vs Leioa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Leioa
Leioa
11/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Estadio Don Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Pasaia KE31%
×Draw28%
Leioa41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pasaia KE
1.04
Leioa
1.25

Leioa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 87 away

creates per match

Pasaia KE
0.93
Leioa
1.20

allows per match

Pasaia KE
1.31
Leioa
1.15

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par
Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Leioa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw
59%
Pasaia KE or Leioa
72%
Draw or Leioa
69%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+
12%
Leioa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals
65%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
28%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
9%
Leioa 1+ goals
71%
Leioa 2+ goals
36%
Leioa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
43%
Leioa (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Leioa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Leioa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Leioa attack 1.20 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pasaia KE scores more
31%
level
28%
Leioa scores more
41%

Leioa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Pasaia KE 2–3 Leioa

Leioa beat Pasaia KE 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Don Bosco in Pasajes-Pasaia.