Leioa 0–1 Pasaia KE: Result & Stats

Leioa

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pasaia KE

9/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Leioa50%

×Draw25%

Pasaia KE25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeioaExpected goals in this matchPasaia KE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.04

Leioa

1.58

Pasaia KE

1.04

Leioa creates 52% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 111 away

1.79

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Leioa

1.79

Pasaia KE

1.00

allows per match

Leioa

1.08

Pasaia KE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Pasaia KE →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leioa or draw

75%

Leioa or Pasaia KE

75%

Draw or Pasaia KE

50%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+

26%

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals

79%

Leioa 2+ goals

47%

Leioa 3+ goals

21%

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

65%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

28%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)

67%

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.08 · 86 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.79 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Leioa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leioa scores more

50%

level

25%

Pasaia KE scores more

25%

Leioa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff