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Pasaia KE vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
10/28/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Estadio Don Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Pasaia KE41%
×Draw28%
Aurrerá Ondarroa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pasaia KE
1.29
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.11

Pasaia KE creates 16% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 66 away

creates per match

Pasaia KE
0.93
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Pasaia KE
1.31
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw
68%
Pasaia KE or Aurrerá Ondarroa
72%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
59%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+
18%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals
72%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
37%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
14%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
67%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
30%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
56%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pasaia KE scores more
41%
level
28%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
32%

Pasaia KE at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pasaia KE vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Pasaia KE beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Don Bosco in Errenteria.