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Pasaia KE vs Ariznabarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
CANC
00:00
Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Estadio Don Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pasaia KE53%
×Draw25%
Ariznabarra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pasaia KE
1.59
Ariznabarra
0.92

Pasaia KE creates 73% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pasaia KE
0.93
Ariznabarra
0.52

allows per match

Pasaia KE
1.31
Ariznabarra
2.24

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par
Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Ariznabarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw
78%
Pasaia KE or Ariznabarra
75%
Draw or Ariznabarra
47%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+
28%
Ariznabarra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals
80%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
47%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
21%
Ariznabarra 1+ goals
60%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
23%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
71%
Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Ariznabarra away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Ariznabarra defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ariznabarra attack 0.52 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pasaia KE scores more
53%
level
25%
Ariznabarra scores more
22%

Pasaia KE at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pasaia KE face Ariznabarra (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Pasaia KE hosting Ariznabarra. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pasaia KE host Ariznabarra at Estadio Don Bosco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.