Pasaia KE 0–1 Añorga: Result & Stats

Pasaia KE

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Añorga

5/3/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pasaia KE53%

×Draw25%

Añorga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pasaia KEExpected goals in this matchAñorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.90

Pasaia KE

1.56

Añorga

0.90

Pasaia KE creates 73% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 33 away

0.93

creates per match

0.48

1.31

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Pasaia KE

0.93

Añorga

0.48

allows per match

Pasaia KE

1.31

Añorga

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Añorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Añorga →

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw

78%

Pasaia KE or Añorga

75%

Draw or Añorga

47%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

28%

Añorga wins by 2+

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

79%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

46%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

21%

Añorga 1+ goals

59%

Añorga 2+ goals

23%

Añorga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

71%

Añorga (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Añorga away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Añorga defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

Añorga attack 0.48 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pasaia KE scores more

53%

level

25%

Añorga scores more

22%

Pasaia KE at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Pasaia KE 0–1 Añorga

Añorga beat Pasaia KE 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora in Errenteria.

Pasaia KE vs Añorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Pasaia KE 0–1 Añorga